The latest data import than expected growth in the high copper stocks released in February 19th when the week of the designated delivery warehouse inventory of 276904 tons of copper, copper hit a new high since listing, stock over the same period LME (208525 tons). In fact, since July last year, copper inventories began to show significant growth in the previous period. At the same time, LME copper stocks are in steady decline channel. According to public data, copper inventories in Shanghai alone exceeded the total inventory of LME announced last week. Why domestic copper stocks continue to grow? In this regard, assistant director of the Institute of Baocheng futures futures daily Cheng Xiaoyong told reporters: "last December and January this year, the domestic copper imports rose sharply exceeded market expectations, the copper increased supply of the domestic market, some of the imported copper into the delivery warehouse, this is the period of copper stocks rise is one of the important reasons." Due to the limited financing demand, the copper hidden inventory in the bonded area will be partly transformed into explicit inventory." Cheng Xiaoyong believes that since January, Shanghai copper futures than the spot to maintain the premium status, so traders set force is also increased. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on, domestic refined copper imports increased by 7.8% in to 323870 tons in January, and imports of refined copper in December rose by 34.4% compared with the same period in 2014, reaching a record value of 423181 tons. In addition, in January this year, the domestic imports of copper and copper imports were 437 thousand tons, an increase of 5.3% over the same period last year, still higher than the monthly average value of 400 thousand tons last year. The expected growth of domestic copper imports is not driven by demand." My non-ferrous copper analyst Wang Yu told reporters, due to the early devaluation of the RMB a certain extent, many traders tried to get profit margins through imports of copper. Some of our clients expect the renminbi to depreciate and replenish the stock at the end of last year." A copper importer told reporters that arbitrage window has been opened, is one of the reasons for the larger increase in copper imports in December last year. In addition, Cheng Xiaoyong believes that the rapid increase of copper imports is also affected by seasonal factors. "The market is expected to be the first quarter of the infrastructure construction season, so some enterprises in the end of last year and early this year started the replenishment inventory operation." Cheng Xiaoyong said. On the one hand, the surge in imports, on the other hand, as the world’s largest copper consumer countries, the demand for the Chinese market for a long time weak performance. "Domestic copper market demand changes and related policies are relatively large, some of the implementation of the project will largely affect China’s copper demand in 2016." Wang Yu said frankly, from the current situation, the domestic copper demand performance is still not very optimistic. Cheng Xiaoyong also said that domestic copper demand in 2016 is expected to remain weak, and may even be a slight decline. Although the steady growth policy this year is a high probability event, the infrastructure investment hedge economic downturn will increase, but other industries consumption may be difficult to avoid landslides. The main construction of the power grid is the distribution network, the backbone grid has been completed, so the copper.

进口超预期增长 沪铜库存创新高   上期所公布的最新数据显示,2月19日当周上期所指定交割仓库铜库存达276904吨,创沪铜上市以来新高,超过同期LME的库存量(208525吨)。   实际上,自去年7月以来,上期所铜库存开始出现较明显的增长。与此同时,LME的铜库存则处于稳步下滑通道。根据公开数据,上周仅上海地区的铜库存就超过了LME所公布的总库存量。   为何国内铜库存持续增长?对此,宝城期货研究所所长助理程小勇告诉期货日报记者:“去年12月和今年1月,国内铜进口出现超市场预期的大幅增长,使得国内市场的铜供应增多,部分进口铜流入上期所交割仓库,这是上期所铜库存攀升的重要原因之一。”   “由于融资需求受限,保税区铜隐性库存也会有部分转为显性库存。”程小勇认为,1月至今,沪铜期货较现货保持升水状态,因此贸易商套保力度也有所加大。   根据本周一我国海关总署公布的数据,国内1月精炼铜进口量同比增加7.8%,增至323870吨;去年12月精炼铜进口更是较2014年同期飙升34.4%,达到创纪录的423181吨。此外,今年1月,国内未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为43.7万吨,较上年同期增加5.3%,依旧高于去年40万吨的月度均值。   “国内铜进口的超预期增长并不是受到需求的拉动。”我的有色网铜分析师王宇告诉记者,由于前期人民币出现一定幅度的贬值,不少贸易商试图通过进口铜来获取价差盈利。   “我们的一些客户预期人民币会贬值,在去年临近年底时补充库存。”一位铜进口商告诉记者,套利窗口一直开启,是去年12月铜进口增幅较大的原因之一。   此外,程小勇认为,铜进口大增还受到季节性因素影响。“市场预计一季度为基建开工旺季,因此部分企业在去年年底和今年年初启动了补库存的操作。”程小勇说。   一方面是进口激增,另一方面作为全球最大铜消费国,中国市场的需求较长时间表现疲软。“国内铜市场的需求变化与相关政策的关系比较大,一些项目的落实情况很大程度上会影响到2016年我国的铜需求。”王宇坦言,从目前的情况来看,国内的铜需求表现仍旧不是很乐观。   程小勇也表示,2016年国内的铜需求预计保持弱势,甚至可能会出现小幅下滑。尽管今年稳增长政策发力是大概率事件,以基建投资对冲经济下滑的力度会加大,但是其他行业消费的滑坡恐怕难以避免。   “电网建设目前主要是配电网,主干电网已经完成构建,因此对铜的消耗量不会很高。房地产行业则在去库存,新开工和施工面积还将维持低增速。家电、汽车等行业已经是饱和的市场,不会出现高速增长。”程小勇说。   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: