Li Sheng: don’t get ADP data on gold gold misleading near the more than 1135 Wednesday, after finishing bottom of gold to continue to 1122, the formation of a new round of rising, and broke through the suppression of 1130 has finally entered the new rising channel 1145 hours high position below 1108 for 1081, relying on the support under the rail, to the top 1109 1128, high position rising and shows a strong bull market. First of all, when the ADP data was published, it was found that the obvious lack of insight into the market data of investors was basically dependent on the publication results of the data websites, which were considered to be the final or correct results. The pre ADP value is 257 thousand, the market is expected to be in the range of 19-19.5 million, and the announcement value is 205 thousand, the website announced the result is "bad gold and silver", which is actually a serious misleading or wrong data. If the announcement results are greater than 257 thousand, and the expected 195 thousand, it shows that employment is optimistic, the economy is steadily growing, bad gold. However, you obviously see, the former is 257 thousand of the employment, now only 205 thousand, is not more than the previous road to Jane less nearly 50 thousand people, employment less economic recession, gold is a hedge currency, how bad?. While the expected is looking forward to the results, different scholars have different views. Example: you last year income annual salary of 100 thousand, you estimate this year the market downturn, should be only 60 thousand, but, finally to the end of the year accounting, this year made 80 thousand, you think compared to last year, you are good or bad? It’s just not as bad as you think, but it still doesn’t wipe out the bad facts. So, more than expected, less than the previous value, the ADP fell after the first rise, not bad, I hope you later in the face of ADP, the unemployment rate, the employment rate of the thing to be able to carefully verify, do not fly without head, see bad immediately into the killing, down $3 at Le open flowers, no sacrifice to his wife after publicity! Today, after breaking through the high breaking point, the last innovation high retracement of the low support in 113536 of the region, it means that if the strong, 1135 is absolutely not broken, that is, the previously talked about the support and resistance to find the knowledge. Therefore: within the golden day 1135.5 more than 1136.5, stop 1130, the target can see to 1143-45. Crude oil, the author is optimistic about the empty sheet of 30.80, but also in the U.S. disk highest 30.9 rapid decline, hit a 29.70 low point position, also in line with the technical aspects of a judgment. One point is also worth emphasizing that the EIA data, this and ADP as too many people will not see, I can only regret to say "know it, do not know why", the crude oil inventories increased by 7 million 792 thousand barrels, the market is expected to be 4 million barrels, the former value is 8 million 383 thousand. We all look at the increase in inventory, this is not bad? When the supply exceeds demand, the price is down, but the front is 8 million 383 thousand. Look carefully, friends, just like the Wednesday roadshow, I say AD

李生论金:别被ADP数据误导 黄金靠近1135多   周三,黄金继续在1122下方整理之后,形成了新一轮的上涨,并且突破了1130一直以来压制,最终进入小时图新的上升通道1145高点位置,下方依托1081、1108为下轨支撑点,上方以1109、1128为高点位置不断上升并表现了强势的多头行情。   首先,在此次公布ADP数据的时候,发现了明显的投资者市场数据了解的不透彻,基本上是依赖于数据网站的公布结果,认为是最终或者正确无误的结果。此次ADP前值是25.7万,市场预期在19-19.5万的范围,而公布值是20.5万,网站公布的结果是“利空金银”,这其实是严重的误导或者错误数据。若是公布的结果大于25.7万,以及预期的19.5万,那么就说明就业乐观,经济稳步增长,利空黄金。   然而,你明显的看到,前值是25.7万的就业,现在只有20.5万,是不是比以前大道至简少了近5万的人,就业少了经济不景气,黄金是避险货币,怎么会是利空。而预期就是期盼性的结果,仁者见仁、智者见智。举例:你去年收入年薪10万,你估计今年市场不景气,应该只有6万,可是,最后到了年底一核算,今年发了8万,你觉得相比去年,你是好是坏?只是比你想的没那么糟糕,但依旧也抹不掉这个糟糕的事实。   所以,大于预期,小于前值,此次ADP是先跌后涨,而并非利空,希望各位以后在面对ADP、失业率、就业率的事情能够认真的核实,而不能做无头的苍蝇,看到利空就马上杀进去,跌个3美金笑的乐开了花,还没等给老婆宣传完就牺牲了!   今天,突破破高点之后,最后一次创新高回撤的低点支撑在1135 36的区域,也就意味着若是强势,1135是绝对不能破的,也就是之前讲过的支撑点和阻力位寻找的知识。故而:黄金日内1135.5 1136.5多,止损1130,目标看至1143-45即可。   原油,本笔者是看好30.80的空单,而且也在美盘最高30.9就快速的下跌,创下了29.70的低点位置,也符合了技术方面的一个判断。   有一点同样值得强调就是EIA数据,这个和ADP一样太多的人不会看,我只能惋惜的说“知其然、不知其所以然”,此次原油库存增加779.2万桶,市场预期是400万桶,前值是838.3万。   大家猛一看库存增加,这不是利空吗?供大于求的时候,价格下调,可是,前值是838.3万啊,看仔细了朋友们,就如周三路演的时候我说ADP不是利空,有人骂我扯淡,我扯的这可是可以跟随行情的“金蛋”。   明显的小于前值,大于预期值,先调后涨,这就是为何油价快速下探29.70附近暴涨的原因。美盘前给的30.8的策略跌到29.7了,你还拿着这个策略在凌晨用,不是我无能,是你太无知。下次,看数据一定要长个心眼,别一次次被一些不负责的网站坑了,之前800多万桶的库存,现在减少到了700多,虽然距离不大,但市场需要也渴望库存实际减少的刺激,而不是预期。   所以,原油今天若是强势,就得守住32.20的位置,这个道理和黄金1135支撑是一样的,不作多过的解释,而上方的压力其实还是在4小时(如图)下降通道的压力点位置,集中在33.30-33.50的区域,所以,今天要狙击空单肯定要到这个区域才可以出手,而并不是现在,油价的波动都是一个方向不回头,一次性走完,不像黄金三步三回头,涨涨跌跌搞的难受,原油抓住了就可以翻身。若是做多就不能破32.20,要空肯定要等33.30-33.50. 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: