Why the large-scale outflow of private capital? The sina finance leaders column (WeChat public kopleader) writer Zhou Tianyong that year, direct investment in many countries in Chinese, from the market and profit, China economy is in the demographic dividend period to a huge market, exported to the international market competitiveness is also very strong, there are a variety of preferential policies on foreign investment. However, today, China’s economic population is small, aging, demographic dividend has become a negative advantage, competitive advantage is no longer. Why the large-scale outflow of private capital? A capital to another country or abroad to flow in the flow of the parties and between parties, if the system and mechanism of the system, the transfer of funds to the market of pure and profit; and when a country with another country or other countries, there are differences in the system, system and mechanism when the flow of funds between the factors, not only for the pure market and profitability, there are different system and mechanism, financial security, risk and uncertainty, and institutional differences resulting in low profit and loss. If the fund holder feels the A system, system and mechanism is unsafe, the risk is greater, the degree of uncertainty is higher, it will certainly transfer funds out of A countries, and enter a relatively safe and low-risk B country. Unless A in isolation, is not open, otherwise, the transfer of funds, not to A’s values and personal likes and dislikes will change. As a matter of fact, private funds enter the domestic economic fields, and there are a series of problems in the system, system and mechanism. It is especially pointed out that an open economy has a very close contact with the world, especially the development of Internet payment, funds remitted into the regulation of multiple channels and complex and difficult situation, if the money into the economy of the country folk A is more difficult, more obstacles, narrow, into the capital to enter the field of security operation, difficulties and high cost, low profit or even a loss; while the B state and vice versa, the foreign capital into the A national economy, the degree of liberalization must be high, into the process easier, safer assets into the capital, operating standards and lower risk funds, the profit level than the A state is high, B state of the A national private funds have a strong appeal, A state funds will be different even extensively to B countries, even to a similar class B The outflow of many countries. Such as rental housing for decades, or permanent property rights? Is university education beneficial to undertaking innovation or disadvantageous? The private investment property is not discrimination, abuse, shut the dogs up to beat them? In the same year, the direct investment of many countries entered China. From the perspective of market and profitability, China’s economy was in the period of demographic dividend, the market was huge, the competitiveness of export to the international market was also very strong, and there were various preferential policies for foreign investment. However, today, China’s economy has a small population, aging population, population growth slowed down, showing downward trend, demographic dividend into negative profits, based on the shrinking demand, domestic market and foreign export competitive advantage are no longer. Of course, a considerable number of international direct investment in China, or optimistic about China’s huge population size and its market.

为何民间资本大规模外流?   文 新浪财经意见领袖专栏(微信公众号kopleader)作家 周天勇   当年,诸多国家的直接投资进入中国,从市场性和盈利性看,中国经济处于人口红利期,市场巨大,向国际市场出口的竞争力也很强,也有各种各样的外资优惠政策。但是,时至今日,中国经济人口少子化老龄化,人口红利变成了负利,竞争优势不再。 为何民间资本大规模外流?   一国资金向另一国,或者向国外流动,在流动的双方和多方之间,若制度、体制和机制相同,其资金转移为纯粹的市场性和逐利性;而当一国与另一国,或者另多国,在制度、体制和机制上有差异时,资金在其之间的流动,不仅为纯粹市场性和盈利性的因素,也有不同制度、体制和机制下,资金的安全、风险和不确定性,以及由此形成的体制差异性低盈利和亏损。如果资金持有者,感觉A国制度、体制和机制不安全,风险较大,不确定性程度较高,必定会将资金转移出A国,进入较为安全、低风险的B国。除非A国闭关锁国,不对外开放,否则,资金的这种转移,不以A国的价值观及个人的好恶意志而改变。   实际上,民间资金进入国内各经济领域,有一系列制度、体制和机制方面的问题。特别需要指出的是,一个开放的与世界联系已经非常密切的经济体,特别是互联网支付发展、资金出入渠道多元、汇出汇入监管复杂困难的格局下,如果A国家民间资金进入经济领域的难度较大、障碍较多、进入领域狭窄、进入资金资产不安全、运营困难并成本较高、盈利较低甚至亏损;   而B国家则反之,对外来的A国家资金进入其经济领域,放开的程度要高,进入过程较为容易,进入资金资产较为安全,运营规范和风险较低,资金盈利程度比A国家高,则B国家对A国家的民间资金有较强的吸引力,A国家的资金将程度不同,甚至大规模地向B国家,甚至向类似B类的诸多国家流出。如房地是几十年租用,还是永久产权?大学教育利于事业创业创新,还是不利?对私有投资财产是不是歧视,侵犯,关门打狗?   当年,诸多国家的直接投资进入中国,从市场性和盈利性看,中国经济处于人口红利期,市场巨大,向国际市场出口的竞争力也很强,也有各种各样的外资优惠政策。但是,时至今日,中国经济人口少子化老龄化,人口增速放缓,呈现出下行趋势,人口红利变成了负利,以此为基础的需求萎缩,国内市场和国外出口竞争优势都不再。   当然,相当一部分国际对中国的直接投资,还是看好了中国巨大的人口规模及其市场需求,看好了中国2025工业高端制造,看好了中国的互联网加创新,留在了中国。当然,也需要做更多的工作,如开放服务业,开放更多的新的领域,吸引更多的国外资金注入中国,推动中国的经济增长。   同样,一些个体私营企业在30多年中国经济的高涨期,赚得了相当规模的收入,居民的收入水平也在提高,中国国民的储蓄率较高,国内从1978年改革开放的30多年,也积累了巨额的民间资金。其投资也遇到了经济下行、需求相对萎缩、供给相对过剩等市场性和盈利性方面的问题。   这种格局下,如果国内没有战略性的思维,不在经济体制和机制方面进行大的调整,制度、体制和机制差异性规律,民间资金将会一定程度,甚至是大规模地向他国转移,投资房地产、国外股市债券、他国企业和产业等领域,显然对中国经济的发展十分不利。   这类的例子我们可以举出很多,如在资产投资方面,中国公民到美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、欧洲等地购买土地房产和投资股票债券;比如在人力资本投资方面,中国2015年在外留学的规模为170余万,而到中国留学的只有40万左右,教育服务贸易逆差1000多亿美元;比如中国游客到国外旅游的,从2005年的3000多万,快速增长到2015年的1.2亿,大量地从国外购买奶粉、化妆品、保健品、电器等,旅游服务贸易逆差1000多亿美元;比如一些民营企业家将自己的资金、产业等转移到国外,并投资移民等等。   货币的自主权在个人和家庭,投资和消费者以货币投票,这些巨额资金和内需的漏出,并不以中国意识形态号召和舆论的好恶而改变。在中国经济下行,内需不足的情况下,资金外流,市场外移,毫无疑问,对中国国民经济的增长,是雪上加霜。   (本文作者介绍:中共中央党校国际战略研究所副所长、研究员。)   本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章: